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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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May
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Introduction
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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