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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Marketing
Noise
Truth
Distracts
Signal
Signals

More quotes by Nate Silver

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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
Nate Silver