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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Distracts
Signal
Signals
Marketing
Noise
Truth

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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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