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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Distracts
Signal
Signals
Marketing
Noise
Truth
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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