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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Distracts
Signal
Signals
Marketing
Noise
Truth

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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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