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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Truth
Distracts
Signal
Signals
Marketing
Noise

More quotes by Nate Silver

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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
Nate Silver
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
Nate Silver
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
Nate Silver
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
Nate Silver
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
Nate Silver
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
Nate Silver
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
Nate Silver
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
Nate Silver
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
Nate Silver
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
Nate Silver