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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Distracts
Signal
Signals
Marketing
Noise
Truth
More quotes by Nate Silver
One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
Nate Silver
Success makes you less intimidated by things.
Nate Silver
Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
Nate Silver
I don't think you should limit what you read.
Nate Silver
You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
Nate Silver