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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Distracts
Signal
Signals
Marketing
Noise
Truth

More quotes by Nate Silver

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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
Nate Silver