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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Noise
Truth
Distracts
Signal
Signals
Marketing
More quotes by Nate Silver
I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
Nate Silver
In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
Nate Silver
The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
Nate Silver
I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
Nate Silver
Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
Nate Silver
Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
Nate Silver
I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
Nate Silver
Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
Nate Silver
Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
Nate Silver
People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
Nate Silver
Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
Nate Silver
One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
Nate Silver
You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
Nate Silver