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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Distracts
Signal
Signals
Marketing
Noise
Truth

More quotes by Nate Silver

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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
Nate Silver
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
Nate Silver
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
Nate Silver
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
Nate Silver
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
Nate Silver
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
Nate Silver
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
Nate Silver
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
Nate Silver
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
Nate Silver
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
Nate Silver
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
Nate Silver
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
Nate Silver
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
Nate Silver
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
Nate Silver
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
Nate Silver
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
Nate Silver
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
Nate Silver
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
Nate Silver
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
Nate Silver
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
Nate Silver