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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
People
Show
Tell
Shows
Different
Kind
Rapport
Believe
Prefer
Things
Build
Time
Audience
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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