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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Shows
Different
Kind
Rapport
Believe
Prefer
Things
Build
Time
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More quotes by Nate Silver
I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
Nate Silver
New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
Nate Silver
If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
Nate Silver
One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
Nate Silver
The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
Nate Silver
Success makes you less intimidated by things.
Nate Silver
I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
Nate Silver
I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
Nate Silver
To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
Nate Silver