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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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