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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Implies
Outlook
Happier
Toward
Information
People
Gravitate

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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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