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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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Skepticism
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Providing
Evil
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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