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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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More quotes by Nate Silver

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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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