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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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