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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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Macro
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More quotes by Nate Silver

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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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