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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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More quotes by Nate Silver

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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
Nate Silver