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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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Skepticism
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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