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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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