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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Actually
Times
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Twice
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More quotes by Nate Silver
I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
Nate Silver
Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
Nate Silver
Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
Nate Silver
Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
Nate Silver
Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
Nate Silver
If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
Nate Silver
New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
Nate Silver
Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
Nate Silver
You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
Nate Silver
Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
Nate Silver