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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Requires
Knowledge
Self
Distinguishing
Signal
Signals
Marketing
Scientific
Noise

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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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