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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Signals
Marketing
Scientific
Noise
Requires
Knowledge
Self
Distinguishing
Signal

More quotes by Nate Silver

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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
Nate Silver
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
Nate Silver
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
Nate Silver