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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Signals
Marketing
Scientific
Noise
Requires
Knowledge
Self
Distinguishing
Signal

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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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