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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Self
Distinguishing
Signal
Signals
Marketing
Scientific
Noise
Requires
Knowledge

More quotes by Nate Silver

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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
Nate Silver
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
Nate Silver
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
Nate Silver
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
Nate Silver
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
Nate Silver
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
Nate Silver
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
Nate Silver
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
Nate Silver
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
Nate Silver
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
Nate Silver
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
Nate Silver
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
Nate Silver
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
Nate Silver