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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Recognized
Didn
Believe
Omens
Omen
Caesar
Applied

More quotes by Nate Silver

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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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