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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Read
Everyone
Much
Streak
Way
Streaks
Hot
Instinct
Cold
Almost
More quotes by Nate Silver
I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
Nate Silver
