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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Read
Everyone
Much
Streak
Way
Streaks
Hot
Instinct
Cold
Almost

More quotes by Nate Silver

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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
Nate Silver