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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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Instinct
Cold
Almost
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Everyone
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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