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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Almost
Read
Everyone
Much
Streak
Way
Streaks
Hot
Instinct
Cold

More quotes by Nate Silver

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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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