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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Instinct
Cold
Almost
Read
Everyone
Much
Streak
Way
Streaks
Hot

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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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