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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Almost
Read
Everyone
Much
Streak
Way
Streaks
Hot
Instinct
Cold

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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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