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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Read
Everyone
Much
Streak
Way
Streaks
Hot
Instinct
Cold
Almost

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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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