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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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More quotes by Nate Silver

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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
Nate Silver
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
Nate Silver
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
Nate Silver
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
Nate Silver
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
Nate Silver