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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Public
Even
Economists
Pessimistic
Economist
Economy
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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