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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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Think
Predicting
Thinking
Participating
Observing
Experiment
Experiments
Behavior
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More quotes by Nate Silver

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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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