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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Thinking
Participating
Observing
Experiment
Experiments
Behavior
Somebody
Also
Think
Predicting

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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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