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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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Think
Predicting
Thinking
Participating
Observing
Experiment
Experiments
Behavior

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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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