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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Think
Predicting
Thinking
Participating
Observing
Experiment
Experiments
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More quotes by Nate Silver

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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
Nate Silver