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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Stills
Still
Every
Determinant
Election
Race
More quotes by Nate Silver
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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