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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Determinant
Election
Race
Stills
Still
Every

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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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