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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Every
Determinant
Election
Race
Stills
Still
More quotes by Nate Silver
When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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