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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Still
Every
Determinant
Election
Race
Stills

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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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