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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Determinant
Election
Race
Stills
Still
Every

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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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