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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Boring
Bubble
Watching
Fits
Gets
Bubbles
Looking
Agenda
Agendas
Keeping
Data
Fit

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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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