Quote

If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Keeping
Data
Fit
Boring
Bubble
Watching
Fits
Gets
Bubbles
Looking
Agenda
Agendas

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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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