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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Agendas
Keeping
Data
Fit
Boring
Bubble
Watching
Fits
Gets
Bubbles
Looking
Agenda

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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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