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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Agendas
Keeping
Data
Fit
Boring
Bubble
Watching
Fits
Gets
Bubbles
Looking
Agenda
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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