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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Fit
Boring
Bubble
Watching
Fits
Gets
Bubbles
Looking
Agenda
Agendas
Keeping
Data

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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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