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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
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More quotes by Nate Silver
Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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