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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Tell
Doesn
Much
Poll
Polls
Baseball
Game
Games

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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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