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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Much
Poll
Polls
Baseball
Game
Games
Tell
Doesn

More quotes by Nate Silver

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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
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