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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Poll
Polls
Baseball
Game
Games
Tell
Doesn
Much

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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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