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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Baseball
Game
Games
Tell
Doesn
Much
Poll
Polls

More quotes by Nate Silver

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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
Nate Silver
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
Nate Silver
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
Nate Silver
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
Nate Silver