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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Much
Poll
Polls
Baseball
Game
Games
Tell
Doesn

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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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I don't think you should limit what you read.
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I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.
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