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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Much
Poll
Polls
Baseball
Game
Games
Tell
Doesn

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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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People have different ways of interpreting history.
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If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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