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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Games
Tell
Doesn
Much
Poll
Polls
Baseball
Game

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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
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People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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You get steely nerves playing poker.
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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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