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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.

Nate Silver

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Nate Silver
Age: 46
Born: 1978
Born: January 13
Journalist
Mathematician
Poker Player
Statistician
East Lansing
Michigan
Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Nate Silver
Much
Poll
Polls
Baseball
Game
Games
Tell
Doesn

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Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
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In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
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Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.
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Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
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Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
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I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
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Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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