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Realism is punishing. Probabilistic skepticism is worse.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Age: 64
Born: 1960
Born: September 11
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Economist
Essayist
Mathematician
Philosopher
Statistician
University Teacher
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Nassim Nicholas Najib Taleb
Nassim Taleb
Punishing
Skepticism
Realism
Worse
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The best test of whether someone is extremely stupid (or extremely wise) is whether financial and political news makes sense to him.
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A man without a heroic bent starts dying at the age of thirty.
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A good maxim allows you to have the last word without even starting a conversation.
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Injecting some confusion stabilizes the system.
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The person you are most afraid to contradict is yourself.
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This is the tragedy of modernity: as with neurotically overprotective parents, those trying to help are often hurting us the most.
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Modernity widened the distance between the sensational and the relevant.
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History is opaque. You see what comes out, not the script that produces events, [...] The generator of historical events is different from the events themselves, much as the minds of the gods cannot be read just by witnessing their deeds.
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It is also naïve empiricism to provide, in support of some argument, series of eloquent confirmatory quotes by dead authorities. By searching, you can always find someone who made a well-sounding statement that confirms your point of view and, on every topic, it is possible to find another dead thinker who said the exact opposite.
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The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history
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There are systems that use failure as fuel for improvement, where the cost of failure is small.
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When you ask people, 'What's the opposite of fragile?,' they tend to say robust, resilient, adaptable, solid, strong. That's not it. The opposite of fragile is something that gains from disorder.
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Most so-called writers keep writing and writing with the hope, some day, to find something to say.
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By setting oneself totally free of constraints, free of thoughts, free of this debilitating activity called work, free of efforts, elements hidden in the texture of reality start staring at you then mysteries that you never thought existed emerge in front of your eyes.
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The number of managers with great track records in a given market depends far more on the number of people who started in the investment business (in place of going to dental school), rather than on their ability to produce profits.
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