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Forecasting by bureaucrats tends to be used for anxiety relief rather than for adequate policy making.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Age: 64
Born: 1960
Born: September 11
Author
Economist
Essayist
Mathematician
Philosopher
Statistician
University Teacher
Writer
Nassim Nicholas Najib Taleb
Nassim Taleb
Tends
Relief
Anxiety
Policy
Rather
Making
Forecasting
Used
Bureaucrats
Adequate

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Most so-called writers keep writing and writing with the hope, some day, to find something to say.
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Modernity widened the distance between the sensational and the relevant.
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For the classics philosophical insight was the product of a life of leisure for me a life of leisure is the product of philosophical insight.
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Never take advice from someone wearing a tie.
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I lift heavy weights and sprint, but I am so bad at it that I develop severe injuries.
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The fragile wants tranquility, the antifragile grows from disorder, and the robust doesn't care too much.
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I remind myself of Einstein's remark that common sense is nothing but a collection of misconceptions acquired by age 18.
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Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same the antifragile gets better.
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If you roll dice, you know that the odds are one in six that the dice will come up on a particular side. So you can calculate the risk. But, in the stock market, such computations are bull - you don't even know how many sides the dice have!
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Is the economy something organic or is it something engineered? I think it's closer to the organic. You harm it by artificially suppressing volatility in it.
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The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history
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