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Forecasting by bureaucrats tends to be used for anxiety relief rather than for adequate policy making.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Age: 64
Born: 1960
Born: September 11
Author
Economist
Essayist
Mathematician
Philosopher
Statistician
University Teacher
Writer
Nassim Nicholas Najib Taleb
Nassim Taleb
Adequate
Tends
Relief
Anxiety
Policy
Rather
Making
Forecasting
Used
Bureaucrats
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Being an economist is the least ethical profession, closer to charlatanism than any science.
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The number of managers with great track records in a given market depends far more on the number of people who started in the investment business (in place of going to dental school), rather than on their ability to produce profits.
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Missing a train is only painful if you run after it! Likewise, not matching the idea of success others expect from you is only painful if that’s what you are seeking.
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A mistake is not something to be determined after the fact, but in the light of the information until that point.
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When you write, you don't have the social constraints of having people in front of you, so you talk about abstract matters.
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The psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer has a simple heuristic. Never ask the doctor what you should do. Ask him what he would do if he were in your place. You would be surprised at the difference
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Every social association that is not face-to-face is injurious to your health.
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We should ban banks from risk-taking because society is going to pay the price.
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Go to parties. You can't even start to know what you may find on the envelope of serendipity. If you suffer from agoraphobia, send colleagues.
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Cumulative errors depend largely on the big surprises, the big opportunities. Not only do economic, financial, and political predictors miss them, but they are quite ashamed to say anything outlandish to their clients and yet events, it turns out, are almost always outlandish.
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It is a sign of weakness to avoid showing signs of weakness.
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You will be civilized on the day you can spend a long period doing nothing, learning nothing, and improving nothing, without feeling the slightest amount of guilt.
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Stoicism is about the *domestication* of emotions, not their elimination.
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Charm is the ability to insult people without offending them nerdiness the reverse
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Most so-called writers keep writing and writing with the hope, some day, to find something to say.
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The grandchildren should not bear the debts of the grandparents.
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The rationalist imagines an imbecile-free society the empiricist and imbecile-proof one, or even better, a rationalist-proof one.
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Capitalism is about adventurers who get harmed by their mistakes, not people who harm others with their mistakes.
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You have family-owned businesses that have been around for 500 years. You cannot name a corporation that survives intact for even a few decades.
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When we want to do something while unconsciously certain to fail, we seek advice so we can blame someone else for the failure.
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