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Forecasting by bureaucrats tends to be used for anxiety relief rather than for adequate policy making.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Age: 64
Born: 1960
Born: September 11
Author
Economist
Essayist
Mathematician
Philosopher
Statistician
University Teacher
Writer
Nassim Nicholas Najib Taleb
Nassim Taleb
Relief
Anxiety
Policy
Rather
Making
Forecasting
Used
Bureaucrats
Adequate
Tends

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Let me be more aggressive: we are largely better at doing than we are at thinking, thanks to antifragility. I’d rather be dumb and antifragile than extremely smart and fragile, any time.
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If something is going on, I hear about it. I like to talk to people, I socialise. Television is a waste of time. Human contact is what matters.
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The best way to measure the loss of intellectual sophistication - this nerdification, to put it bluntly - is in the growing disappearance of sarcasm, as mechanic minds take insults a bit too literally.
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Ideas come and go, stories stay.
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I've debated many economists who claim to specialize in risk and probability: when one takes them slightly outside their narrow focus, but within the discipline of probability, they fall apart, with the disconsolate face of a gym rat in front of a gangster hit man.
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What is nonmeasurable and nonpredictable will remain nonmeasurable and nonpredictable ... no matter how much hate mail I get.
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You get pseudo-order when you seek order you only get a measure of order and control when you embrace randomness.
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We should ban banks from risk-taking because society is going to pay the price.
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Never think that lack of variability is stability. Don't confuse lack of volatility with stability, ever.
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He who has never sinned is less reliable than he who has only sinned once. And someone who has made plenty of errors-though never the same error more than once-is more reliable than someone who has never made any.
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Injecting some confusion stabilizes the system.
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To succeed in life requires a total inability to do anything that makes you uncomfortable when you look at yourself in the mirror.
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It is often the mistakes of others that benefit the rest of us and, sadly, not them ... For the antifragile, harm from errors should be less than the benefits.
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The fool generalizes the particular the nerd particularizes the general some do both and the wise does neither
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Maximum of an average is necessarily less volatile than the average maximum
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They think that intelligence is about noticing things are relevant (detecting patterns) in a complex world, intelligence consists in ignoring things that are irrelevant (avoiding false patterns)
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There are secrets to our world that only practice can reveal, and no opinion or analysis will ever capture in full.
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You have family-owned businesses that have been around for 500 years. You cannot name a corporation that survives intact for even a few decades.
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The sucker's trap is when you focus on what you know and what others don't know, rather than the reverse.
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