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But they never notice the following inconsistency: this so-called worst-case event, when it happened, exceeded the worst case at the time.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Age: 64
Born: 1960
Born: September 11
Author
Economist
Essayist
Mathematician
Philosopher
Statistician
University Teacher
Writer
Nassim Nicholas Najib Taleb
Nassim Taleb
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Following
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Events
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Worst
Exceeded
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Inconsistency
Happened
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Never
Notice
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Realism is punishing. Probabilistic skepticism is worse.
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If you roll dice, you know that the odds are one in six that the dice will come up on a particular side. So you can calculate the risk. But, in the stock market, such computations are bull - you don't even know how many sides the dice have!
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They think that intelligence is about noticing things are relevant (detecting patterns) in a complex world, intelligence consists in ignoring things that are irrelevant (avoiding false patterns)
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Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same the antifragile gets better.
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Success is about honour, feeling morally calibrated, absence of shame, not what some newspaper defines from an external metric.
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Older people are most beautiful when they have what is lacking in the young: poise, erudition, wisdom, phronesis, and this post-heroic absence of agitation.
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Globalization has created this interlocking fragility. At no time in the history of the universe has the cancellation of a Christmas order in New York meant layoffs in China.
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When you beat up someone physically, you get excercise and stress relief when you assault him verbally on the Internet, you just harm yourself.
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If humans fight the last war, nature fights the next one.
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Those who do not think that employment is systemic slavery are either blind or employed.
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Modernity widened the distance between the sensational and the relevant.
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Modernity: we created youth without heroism, age without wisdom, and life without grandeur
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Karl Marx, a visionary, figured out that you can control a slave much better by convincing him he is an employee.
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Life is a tightrope between two errors: generalizing the wrong particular and particularizing the wrong general.
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Go to parties. You can't even start to know what you may find on the envelope of serendipity. If you suffer from agoraphobia, send colleagues.
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Only the autodidacts are free.
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I disagree with the followers of Marx and those of Adam Smith: the reason free markets work is because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or incentives for skill.
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The fragile wants tranquility, the antifragile grows from disorder, and the robust doesn't care too much.
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