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The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Age: 64
Born: 1960
Born: September 11
Author
Economist
Essayist
Mathematician
Philosopher
Statistician
University Teacher
Writer
Nassim Nicholas Najib Taleb
Nassim Taleb
Courses
Course
History
Outliers
Implies
Predict
Inability

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Those who do not think that employment is systemic slavery are either blind or employed.
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The more data we have, the more likely we are to drown in it.
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Someone who says I am busy is either declaring incompetence (and lack of control of his life) or trying to get rid of you.
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I remind myself of Einstein's remark that common sense is nothing but a collection of misconceptions acquired by age 18.
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Don't read newspapers for the news (just for the gossip and, of course, profiles of authors). The best filter to know if the news matters is if you hear it in cafes, restaurants... or (again) parties.
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It was obvious that their profits were simply cash borrowed from destiny with some random payback time.
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Read books are far less valuable than unread ones. The library should contain as much of what you do not know as your financial means, mortgage rates, and the currently tight real-estate market alow you to put there.
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An erudite is someone who displays less than he knows a journalist or consultant the opposite.
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You will be civilized on the day you can spend a long period doing nothing, learning nothing, and improving nothing, without feeling the slightest amount of guilt.
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Luck is the grand equalizer.
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We should ban banks from risk-taking because society is going to pay the price.
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The book is the only medium left that hasn't been corrupted by the profane.
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Probability is not about the odds, but about the belief in the existence of an alternative outcome, cause, or motive.
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We should reward people, not ridicule them, for thinking the impossible.
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Realism is punishing. Probabilistic skepticism is worse.
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People used to wear ordinary clothes weekdays, and formal attire on Sunday. Today it is the exact reverse.
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There is no effective difference between guessing a variable that is not random, but for which information is partial or deficient, and a random one. In this sense, guessing (what I don't know, but what someone else may know) and predicting (what has not taken place yet) are the same thing.
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Also, it's good to have more than one profession, in case your own profession goes out of style. A Wall Street trader who's also a belly dancer will do a lot better than a trader who winds up driving a taxi.
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Please, don’t drive a school bus blindfolded.
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Being an economist is the least ethical profession, closer to charlatanism than any science.
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