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The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Age: 64
Born: 1960
Born: September 11
Author
Economist
Essayist
Mathematician
Philosopher
Statistician
University Teacher
Writer
Nassim Nicholas Najib Taleb
Nassim Taleb
Outliers
Implies
Predict
Inability
Courses
Course
History

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Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast, or recommendation. Just ask them what they have—or don’t have—in their portfolio.
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They think that intelligence is about noticing things are relevant (detecting patterns) in a complex world, intelligence consists in ignoring things that are irrelevant (avoiding false patterns)
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There is no effective difference between guessing a variable that is not random, but for which information is partial or deficient, and a random one. In this sense, guessing (what I don't know, but what someone else may know) and predicting (what has not taken place yet) are the same thing.
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The American people will eventually get hurt by this accumulated deficit. That's the problem. We have too much deficit. We have to find a solution.
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It has been more profitable for us to bind together in the wrong direction than to be alone in the right one.
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While in theory randomness is an intrinsic property, in practice, randomness is incomplete information.
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I lift heavy weights and sprint, but I am so bad at it that I develop severe injuries.
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Injecting some confusion stabilizes the system.
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People used to wear ordinary clothes weekdays, and formal attire on Sunday. Today it is the exact reverse.
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Ideas come and go, stories stay.
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The person you are most afraid to contradict is yourself.
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Dress your best on your execution day. Be extremely courteous to your assistant when you lose money. Try not to blame others for your fate, even if they deserve blame. Never exhibit any self-pity. Do not complain.
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What we need to do is break the financial community's grip on society.
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We glorify those who left their names in history books at the expense of those contributors about whom our books are silent. We humans are not just a superficial race - we are a very unfair one.
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Alan Greenspan is unskilled you don't take the unskilled seriously.
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The twentieth century was the bankruptcy of the social utopia the twenty-first will be that of the technological one.
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If I could predict what my day would exactly look like, I would feel a little bit dead.
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It might be useful to be able to predict war. But tension does not necessarily lead to war, but often to peace and to denouement.
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Older people are most beautiful when they have what is lacking in the young: poise, erudition, wisdom, phronesis, and this post-heroic absence of agitation.
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Banking is a very treacherous business because you don't realize it is risky until it is too late. It is like calm waters that deliver huge storms.
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