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The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Age: 64
Born: 1960
Born: September 11
Author
Economist
Essayist
Mathematician
Philosopher
Statistician
University Teacher
Writer
Nassim Nicholas Najib Taleb
Nassim Taleb
Outliers
Implies
Predict
Inability
Courses
Course
History

More quotes by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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There is a certain category of fool-the overeducated, the academic, the journalist, the newspaper reader, the mechanistic scientist, the pseudo-empiricist, those endowed with what I call epistemic arrogance, this wonderful ability to discount what they did not see, the unobserved.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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To bankrupt a fool, give him information.
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I've debated many economists who claim to specialize in risk and probability: when one takes them slightly outside their narrow focus, but within the discipline of probability, they fall apart, with the disconsolate face of a gym rat in front of a gangster hit man.
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Few understand that procrastination is our natural defense, letting things take care of themselves and exercise their antifragility it results from some ecological or naturalistic wisdom, and is not always bad - at an existential level, it is my body rebelling against its entrapment. It is my soul fighting the Procrustean bed of modernity.
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The sucker's trap is when you focus on what you know and what others don't know, rather than the reverse.
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Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same the antifragile gets better.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Poverty is clearly one source of emotional suffering, but there are others, like loneliness.
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Don't disturb complicated systems that have been around for a very long time. We don't understand their logic. Don't pollute the planet. Leave it the way we found it, regardless of scientific 'evidence'.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Things always become obvious after the fact
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You want to be yourself, idiosyncratic the collective (school, rules, jobs, technology) wants you generic to the point of castration.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Banking is a very treacherous business because you don't realize it is risky until it is too late. It is like calm waters that deliver huge storms.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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The best test of whether someone is extremely stupid (or extremely wise) is whether financial and political news makes sense to him.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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People focus on role models it is more effective to find antimodels - people you don't want to resemble when you grow up
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Experience is devoid of the cherry-picking that we find in studies.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Daily news and sugar confuse our system in the same manner.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Most so-called writers keep writing and writing with the hope, some day, to find something to say.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Don't read newspapers for the news (just for the gossip and, of course, profiles of authors). The best filter to know if the news matters is if you hear it in cafes, restaurants... or (again) parties.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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As countries get rich they start increasing education and the very educated people tend to not like trial and error, because they think they're obligated to use the body of knowledge they have.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Never take advice from someone wearing a tie.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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There are secrets to our world that only practice can reveal, and no opinion or analysis will ever capture in full.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb