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When you develop your opinions on the basis of weak evidence, you will have difficulty interpreting subsequent information that contradicts these opinions, even if this new information is obviously more accurate.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Age: 64
Born: 1960
Born: September 11
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Economist
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Mathematician
Philosopher
Statistician
University Teacher
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Nassim Nicholas Najib Taleb
Nassim Taleb
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Prediction, not narration, is the real test of our understanding of the world.
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It was obvious that their profits were simply cash borrowed from destiny with some random payback time.
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I always remind myself that what one observes is at best a combination of variance and returns, not just returns.
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Simplicity is not so simple to attain.
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Capitalism is about adventurers who get harmed by their mistakes, not people who harm others with their mistakes.
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Philosophers talk about truth and falsehood. People in life talk about payoff, exposure, and consequences (risks and rewards), hence fragility and antifragility. And sometimes philosophers and thinkers and those who study conflate Truth with risks and rewards.
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When you beat up someone physically, you get excercise and stress relief when you assault him verbally on the Internet, you just harm yourself.
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There are secrets to our world that only practice can reveal, and no opinion or analysis will ever capture in full.
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There are systems that use failure as fuel for improvement, where the cost of failure is small.
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The traits I respect are erudition and the courage to stand up when half-men are afraid for their reputation. Any idiot can be intelligent.
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The rationalist imagines an imbecile-free society the empiricist and imbecile-proof one, or even better, a rationalist-proof one.
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To succeed in life requires a total inability to do anything that makes you uncomfortable when you look at yourself in the mirror.
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Don't disturb complicated systems that have been around for a very long time. We don't understand their logic. Don't pollute the planet. Leave it the way we found it, regardless of scientific 'evidence'.
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I'd rather have the market tell us what - I'd rather have events precipitate events, rather than just sit there like passive people in Washington.
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I hated school because I liked to daydream and the system tried to stop me from that.
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You have a real life if and only if you do not compete with anyone in any of your pursuits.
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An erudite is someone who displays less than he knows a journalist or consultant the opposite.
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Most people are sceptical about the wrong things and gullible about the wrong things.
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Your reputation is harmed the most by what you say to defend it.
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