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We know from chaos theory that even if you had a perfect model of the world, you'd need infinite precision in order to predict future events. With sociopolitical or economic phenomena, we don't have anything like that.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Age: 64
Born: 1960
Born: September 11
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Economist
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Nassim Nicholas Najib Taleb
Nassim Taleb
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Modernity widened the distance between the sensational and the relevant.
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Ideas come and go, stories stay.
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The fastest way to become rich is to socialize with the poor the fastest way to become poor is to socialize with the rich.
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When I trade, I don't have an agency problem I have my neck on the line. When a bank or banker trades, it's not his neck on the line.
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If you roll dice, you know that the odds are one in six that the dice will come up on a particular side. So you can calculate the risk. But, in the stock market, such computations are bull - you don't even know how many sides the dice have!
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Prediction, not narration, is the real test of our understanding of the world.
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Comfort makes you weaker. We need some variability, some stressors. Not too much, but just enough.
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When some systems are stuck in a dangerous impasse, randomness and only randomness can unlock them and set them free.
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Never ask a trader if he is profitable: you can easily see it in his gesture and gait.
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When you write, you don't have the social constraints of having people in front of you, so you talk about abstract matters.
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By setting oneself totally free of constraints, free of thoughts, free of this debilitating activity called work, free of efforts, elements hidden in the texture of reality start staring at you then mysteries that you never thought existed emerge in front of your eyes.
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A man without a heroic bent starts dying at the age of thirty.
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Capitalism is about adventurers who get harmed by their mistakes, not people who harm others with their mistakes.
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The rationalist imagines an imbecile-free society the empiricist and imbecile-proof one, or even better, a rationalist-proof one.
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Older people are most beautiful when they have what is lacking in the young: poise, erudition, wisdom, phronesis, and this post-heroic absence of agitation.
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Someone who says I am busy is either declaring incompetence (and lack of control of his life) or trying to get rid of you.
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When you beat up someone physically, you get excercise and stress relief when you assault him verbally on the Internet, you just harm yourself.
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Karl Marx, a visionary, figured out that you can control a slave much better by convincing him he is an employee.
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Go to parties. You can't even start to know what you may find on the envelope of serendipity. If you suffer from agoraphobia, send colleagues.
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Avoid losers. If you hear someone use the words 'impossible', 'never', 'too difficult' too often, drop him or her from your social network.
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