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We know from chaos theory that even if you had a perfect model of the world, you'd need infinite precision in order to predict future events. With sociopolitical or economic phenomena, we don't have anything like that.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Age: 64
Born: 1960
Born: September 11
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Nassim Nicholas Najib Taleb
Nassim Taleb
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You have a real life if and only if you do not compete with anyone in any of your pursuits.
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Another definition of modernity: conversations can be more and more completely reconstructed with clips from other conversations taking place at the same time on the planet.
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Academia is to knowledge what prostitution is to love.
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Someone who says I am busy is either declaring incompetence (and lack of control of his life) or trying to get rid of you.
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Philosophers talk about truth and falsehood. People in life talk about payoff, exposure, and consequences (risks and rewards), hence fragility and antifragility. And sometimes philosophers and thinkers and those who study conflate Truth with risks and rewards.
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Cumulative errors depend largely on the big surprises, the big opportunities. Not only do economic, financial, and political predictors miss them, but they are quite ashamed to say anything outlandish to their clients and yet events, it turns out, are almost always outlandish.
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We should probably stop trading derivatives, anything more complex than regular options ... I am an options trader, and I don't understand options. How do you want a regulator to understand them?
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If you are in banking and lending, surprise outcomes are likely to be negative for you.
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Paul Krugman is a danger to society!
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Don't disturb complicated systems that have been around for a very long time. We don't understand their logic. Don't pollute the planet. Leave it the way we found it, regardless of scientific 'evidence'.
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When we want to do something while unconsciously certain to fail, we seek advice so we can blame someone else for the failure.
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It is a sign of weakness to avoid showing signs of weakness.
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Modernity widened the distance between the sensational and the relevant.
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You never win an argument until they attack your person.
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The fragile wants tranquility, the antifragile grows from disorder, and the robust doesn't care too much.
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Never ask a trader if he is profitable: you can easily see it in his gesture and gait.
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Love without sacrifice is like theft
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Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same the antifragile gets better.
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The same past data can confirm a theory and its exact opposite! If you survive until tomorrow, it could mean that either a) you are more likely to be immortal or b) that you are closer to death.
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Anything organic requires some dose of variability so it can adapt all the time, and fixing things is not a good idea.
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