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We know from chaos theory that even if you had a perfect model of the world, you'd need infinite precision in order to predict future events. With sociopolitical or economic phenomena, we don't have anything like that.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Age: 64
Born: 1960
Born: September 11
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Economist
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Nassim Nicholas Najib Taleb
Nassim Taleb
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When we want to do something while unconsciously certain to fail, we seek advice so we can blame someone else for the failure.
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People focus on role models it is more effective to find antimodels - people you don't want to resemble when you grow up
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We should reward people, not ridicule them, for thinking the impossible.
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Academia is to knowledge what prostitution is to love.
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You don't become completely free by just avoiding being a slave you also need to avoid becoming a master.
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Only in recent history has working hard signaled pride rather than shame for lack of talent, finesse and, mostly, sprezzatura .
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But it remains the case that you know what is wrong with a lot more confidence than you know what is right.
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When you write, you don't have the social constraints of having people in front of you, so you talk about abstract matters.
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By setting oneself totally free of constraints, free of thoughts, free of this debilitating activity called work, free of efforts, elements hidden in the texture of reality start staring at you then mysteries that you never thought existed emerge in front of your eyes.
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The characteristic feature of the loser is to bemoan, in general terms, mankind's flaws, biases, contradictions, and irrationality - without exploiting them for fun and profit
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Private equity has absolutely no reason to exist. The private equity holder has all the upside and the banks all the downside.
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Forecasting by bureaucrats tends to be used for anxiety relief rather than for adequate policy making.
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While in theory randomness is an intrinsic property, in practice, randomness is incomplete information.
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A mistake is not something to be determined after the fact, but in the light of the information until that point.
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Economics make homeopath and alternative healers look empirical and scientific.
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Umberto Eco is the owner of a large personal library of almost 30,000 books that he has not read. [To him] read books are far less valuable than unread ones.
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Asking science to explain life and vital matters is equivalent to asking a grammarian to explain poetry.
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The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history
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