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Globalization has created this interlocking fragility. At no time in the history of the universe has the cancellation of a Christmas order in New York meant layoffs in China.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Age: 64
Born: 1960
Born: September 11
Author
Economist
Essayist
Mathematician
Philosopher
Statistician
University Teacher
Writer
Nassim Nicholas Najib Taleb
Nassim Taleb
Order
Globalization
Time
Christmas
China
Meant
Layoffs
York
Cancellation
Created
Interlocking
Universe
Layoff
History
Fragility
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Economics make homeopath and alternative healers look empirical and scientific.
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An erudite is someone who displays less than he knows a journalist or consultant the opposite.
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A good maxim allows you to have the last word without even starting a conversation.
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Poverty is clearly one source of emotional suffering, but there are others, like loneliness.
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There is no effective difference between guessing a variable that is not random, but for which information is partial or deficient, and a random one. In this sense, guessing (what I don't know, but what someone else may know) and predicting (what has not taken place yet) are the same thing.
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Cumulative errors depend largely on the big surprises, the big opportunities. Not only do economic, financial, and political predictors miss them, but they are quite ashamed to say anything outlandish to their clients and yet events, it turns out, are almost always outlandish.
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I've debated many economists who claim to specialize in risk and probability: when one takes them slightly outside their narrow focus, but within the discipline of probability, they fall apart, with the disconsolate face of a gym rat in front of a gangster hit man.
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Someone bemoaned that there were so few women in economics. But there are also very few men in economics.
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Avoid losers. If you hear someone use the words 'impossible', 'never', 'too difficult' too often, drop him or her from your social network.
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Also, it's good to have more than one profession, in case your own profession goes out of style. A Wall Street trader who's also a belly dancer will do a lot better than a trader who winds up driving a taxi.
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You don't become completely free by just avoiding being a slave you also need to avoid becoming a master.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
When some systems are stuck in a dangerous impasse, randomness and only randomness can unlock them and set them free.
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I remind myself of Einstein's remark that common sense is nothing but a collection of misconceptions acquired by age 18.
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Much of aging comes from a misunderstanding of the effect of comfort.
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Older people are most beautiful when they have what is lacking in the young: poise, erudition, wisdom, phronesis, and this post-heroic absence of agitation.
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My best definition of a nerd: someone who asks you to explain an aphorism
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Is the economy something organic or is it something engineered? I think it's closer to the organic. You harm it by artificially suppressing volatility in it.
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You will be civilized on the day you can spend a long period doing nothing, learning nothing, and improving nothing, without feeling the slightest amount of guilt.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Realism is punishing. Probabilistic skepticism is worse.
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