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Globalization has created this interlocking fragility. At no time in the history of the universe has the cancellation of a Christmas order in New York meant layoffs in China.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Age: 64
Born: 1960
Born: September 11
Author
Economist
Essayist
Mathematician
Philosopher
Statistician
University Teacher
Writer
Nassim Nicholas Najib Taleb
Nassim Taleb
China
Meant
Layoffs
York
Cancellation
Created
Interlocking
Universe
Layoff
History
Fragility
Order
Globalization
Time
Christmas
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An erudite is someone who displays less than he knows a journalist or consultant the opposite.
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History is opaque. You see what comes out, not the script that produces events, [...] The generator of historical events is different from the events themselves, much as the minds of the gods cannot be read just by witnessing their deeds.
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There is no effective difference between guessing a variable that is not random, but for which information is partial or deficient, and a random one. In this sense, guessing (what I don't know, but what someone else may know) and predicting (what has not taken place yet) are the same thing.
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A man without a heroic bent starts dying at the age of thirty.
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Probability is not about the odds, but about the belief in the existence of an alternative outcome, cause, or motive.
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I always remind myself that what one observes is at best a combination of variance and returns, not just returns.
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It's harder to say 'no' when you really mean it.
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Someone who says I am busy is either declaring incompetence (and lack of control of his life) or trying to get rid of you.
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Few understand that procrastination is our natural defense, letting things take care of themselves and exercise their antifragility it results from some ecological or naturalistic wisdom, and is not always bad - at an existential level, it is my body rebelling against its entrapment. It is my soul fighting the Procrustean bed of modernity.
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Anything organic requires some dose of variability so it can adapt all the time, and fixing things is not a good idea.
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The same past data can confirm a theory and its exact opposite! If you survive until tomorrow, it could mean that either a) you are more likely to be immortal or b) that you are closer to death.
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The best test of whether someone is extremely stupid (or extremely wise) is whether financial and political news makes sense to him.
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Ideas come and go, stories stay.
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Writing is the art of repeating oneself without anyone noticing.
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Success is about honour, feeling morally calibrated, absence of shame, not what some newspaper defines from an external metric.
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We should ban banks from risk-taking because society is going to pay the price.
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Never ask a trader if he is profitable: you can easily see it in his gesture and gait.
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Don't cross a river if it is four feet deep on average.
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Wittgenstein's ruler: Unless you have confidence in the ruler's reliability, if you use a ruler to measure a table you may also be using the table to measure the ruler.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
There is a certain category of fool-the overeducated, the academic, the journalist, the newspaper reader, the mechanistic scientist, the pseudo-empiricist, those endowed with what I call epistemic arrogance, this wonderful ability to discount what they did not see, the unobserved.
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