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If you are in banking and lending, surprise outcomes are likely to be negative for you.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Age: 64
Born: 1960
Born: September 11
Author
Economist
Essayist
Mathematician
Philosopher
Statistician
University Teacher
Writer
Nassim Nicholas Najib Taleb
Nassim Taleb
Banking
Outcomes
Likely
Surprise
Negative
Lending
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Ideas come and go, stories stay.
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Never take advice from someone wearing a tie.
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There is no effective difference between guessing a variable that is not random, but for which information is partial or deficient, and a random one. In this sense, guessing (what I don't know, but what someone else may know) and predicting (what has not taken place yet) are the same thing.
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You want to be yourself, idiosyncratic the collective (school, rules, jobs, technology) wants you generic to the point of castration.
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A verbal threat is the most authentic certificate of impotence.
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Steve Jobs, Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg didn't finish college. Too much emphasis is placed on formal education - I told my children not to worry about their grades but to enjoy learning.
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Forecasting by bureaucrats tends to be used for anxiety relief rather than for adequate policy making.
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As countries get rich they start increasing education and the very educated people tend to not like trial and error, because they think they're obligated to use the body of knowledge they have.
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When we want to do something while unconsciously certain to fail, we seek advice so we can blame someone else for the failure.
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Most people are sceptical about the wrong things and gullible about the wrong things.
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Read books are far less valuable than unread ones. The library should contain as much of what you do not know as your financial means, mortgage rates, and the currently tight real-estate market alow you to put there.
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Avoid losers. If you hear someone use the words 'impossible', 'never', 'too difficult' too often, drop him or her from your social network.
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Another definition of modernity: conversations can be more and more completely reconstructed with clips from other conversations taking place at the same time on the planet.
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The fastest way to become rich is to socialize with the poor the fastest way to become poor is to socialize with the rich.
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Success is about honour, feeling morally calibrated, absence of shame, not what some newspaper defines from an external metric.
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We favor the visible, the embedded, the personal, the narrated, and the tangible we scorn the abstract.
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The world we live in is vastly different from the world we think we live in.
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The number of managers with great track records in a given market depends far more on the number of people who started in the investment business (in place of going to dental school), rather than on their ability to produce profits.
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Things always become obvious after the fact
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
When you write, you don't have the social constraints of having people in front of you, so you talk about abstract matters.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
