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Futures thinking is hard work. Fortunately, you do get better at it with practice. It's worth the effort.
Jamais Cascio
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Jamais Cascio
Age: 123
Born: 1901
Born: January 1
Practice
Better
Hard
Work
Futures
Thinking
Fortunately
Worth
Effort
More quotes by Jamais Cascio
Nature stopped being natural decades ago.
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Preventing global warming from becoming a planetary catastrophe may take something even more drastic than renewable energy, superefficient urban design, and global carbon taxes.
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It's remarkably easy to dig up enormous amounts of information about individuals, without their consent.
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In a Photoshopped world, only the skeptical eye prevails.
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Human civilization has been changing the Earths environment for millennia, often to our detriment. Dams, deforestation and urbanization can alter water cycles and wind patterns, occasionally triggering droughts or even creating deserts.
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The biggest potential and actual crises of the 21st century all have a strong, long, slow aspect with a significant lag between cause and effect. We have to train ourselves to be thinking in terms of longer-term results.
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Sustainability is a seemingly laudable goal - it tells us we need to live within our means, whether economic, ecological, or political - but it's insufficient for uncertain times. How can we live within our means when those very means can change, swiftly and unexpectedly, beneath us?
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Even if we were to stop putting out greenhouse gases right now, we'd still face decades of warming.
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The reality is that de-carbonisation is not happening fast enough.
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It's a pretty widely-accepted notion that the atmosphere is a ridiculously complex system, and the best we can do with our models is a rough approximation.
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Most of us who work as professional futurists never really stop gathering information - you never know when a provocative, potentially disruptive new development might appear.
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Cloud computing offers individuals access to data and applications from nearly any point of access to the Internet, offers businesses a whole new way to cut costs for technical infrastructure, and offers big computer companies a potentially giant market for hardware and services.
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Participatory complexity may well be the key descriptor of the 21st century - in our economies, in our politics, and in our everyday lives.
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Trying to do what your competitors are doing but basically a little bit better is probably not going to be the winning strategy. The problem is finding what your competitors wouldnt even consider doing.
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My own suspicion is that a stand-alone artificial mind will be more a tool of narrow utility than something especially apocalyptic.
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By ignoring tomorrow, we undermine today.
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The difference between e-mail and regular mail is that computers handle e-mail, and computers never decide to come to work one day and shoot all the other computers.
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To be clear, geoengineering won't solve global warming. It's not a 'techno-fix.' It would be enormously risky and almost certainly lead to troubling unforeseen consequences.
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Nearly every communication method we invent eventually conveys unwanted commercial messages.
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Fluid intelligence doesn't look much like the capacity to memorise and recite facts, the skills that people have traditionally associated with brainpower.
Jamais Cascio